When Will the Bubble Burst?

STI down 0.4%

2007-09-25T23:46:00.000+08:00

The market has not really pickup after the rate cuts last week. Decided to buy into Tuan Sing today after reading the article in BT on it's property valuation in Shengton Way should be revised much higher.
It's like this company sitting in a gold mine yet nobody notice during this property boom until this article came out and it trigger a mad rush to buy it's stock.
Will this develop more interesting later? Only time will tell.
Portfolio status: +ve 15.1%

Day After Fed cuts Rate

2007-09-19T22:05:00.000+08:00

Only reason I can think of why the Fed cut so much is because the sub-prime/housing/credit-crunch issue is bigger than expected.
So, cutting it now is only to soften the blow, but eventually, when the dust settles down, the problem is going to emerge to be huge.
Which only means one thing, the US economy is heading for recession.
Despite surging 2.5% for the Dow and STI 3.4% higher, I notice that quite many counters changed very little.
Lehman Bro reported higher than expected earnings but this could be due to the way the calculation is different, according to one analyst in CNBC.
Oil price creeping ever so high will just confirm that inflation will rise too, no thanks to the just lowered interest rate.
The effect of the rate cut, after all the anticipation is like an anti-climax.
Portfolio status: +ve 21.1%

STI Tread Water

2007-09-13T23:50:00.000+08:00

STI close 2 points lower, didn't really pay too much attention on it today. Decided to let go of Labroy yesterday and take profit. Although this counter has great potential, I decided to play it safe and decrease my overall stock exposure.
Today Labroy went south, I guess it was a good choice to take profit on the 3rd day of rally. The US futures market was in the red anyway.
Watch Osim performed today, it went as high at 61c before retreating back and close at 59.5c
Decided to buy some at the last few minutes of trading, am rooting that it's price will break out in the very near future. Volume is high after news reported that Ron Sim bought some 500 lots yesterday.
Portfolio status: +ve 20.8%

Shanghai Plunge 4%, Dow Surged 1.4%

2007-09-12T06:09:00.000+08:00

Yesterday Shanghai stock market nose dived 4% and it affected only Hongkong and not the rest of Asian markets.
Reason being is due to inflation data is higher than expected, thus, the China goverment will raise interest rate further.
Labroy finally surged past $2.20 as expected, although it took longer than usual. Analysts came out with reports with TP of over $2.80
Will continue to let it run and take profit by Thursday or Friday.
The Dow surged 1.4% last night, which is going to be good for STI and other markets.
Everyone is hoping for the rate cut by Sept 18. Ben Bernanke supposedly speech from Berlin was intepreted as neutral in the context of not reducing the interest rate.
Osim at 60c may breakout based on the charts.
Portfolio status: +ve 19.9%

STI see-saw whole day

2007-09-04T23:21:00.000+08:00

I guess it lost some direction when US market is closed and China & Hongkong too ain't doing well because of the delay in policy of allowing individuals to buy share directly from HSI.
Labroy is slower than expected in picking up again somehow, very dissapointing.
GKE suddenly surged 10c today, not sure what's causing it yet. Have make some money from this counter before, again?
Rooting for Labroy to perform this week.
Portfolio status: +ve 12.9%

STI closed marginally lower

2007-09-03T23:29:00.000+08:00

Despite the market doing rather miserably, probably directionless, Labroy finally moving up nicely as it should be. Some sense finally been restored to this counter as it should be. Recent sell-off created a window of opportunity to buy in cheap before it ram up to higher prices. Target price by two analysts are rather bullish, good to keep for mid-to-long term.
US market is closed today for the Labour day holiday.
Portfolio status: +ve 11.8

Bernanke vs Bush, who will win?

2007-08-31T23:43:00.000+08:00

Bernanke gave his so-called most important speech today, so did Bush, but neither speech brings any ground-shaking sense of relieve to small time investors like me.
At least that's what I felt.
ASI debut at $0.25 and up 1c by end of the day. Lots of married deal and high volume with very low transaction.
Gems TV went up 7c today, that's 13% with news that an investment fund bought in and now owns about 5% of it.
Went and bought Labroy today, hoping that with the rumour of the COO crushed, the stock with stage a rebound but instead it still went further south. Will cut lost if it goes further south on Monday.
Did not buy in ASI yet, will watch how the share move next week before deciding.
Hopefully US market will be close much higher today so that on Monday, I can get out of Labroy with some profit.
Portfolio status: +ve 18%

ASI a copy of SCI?

2007-08-30T07:02:00.000+08:00

Seatown is going to be revived as ASI today in Sesdaq. It's judicial manager is paid $8m in the form of shares at the price of 46c.
But, many Chinese people will likely to stay away from it but, if they have read Peter Lynch's book, they may want to reconsider.
Besides similar sounding name, and nature of business, will ASI copy the performance of SCI in the initial stage too?
The Dow is up again yesterday, so, today the market will open stronger.
Portfolio status: +ve 16.1%

Tiger roams into NYSE

2007-08-28T22:56:00.000+08:00

What's Tiger Woods doing in NYSE? Chase away the bear? That will be great if he can achieve that in the stock market.
But, instead of being bullish with Tiger there and all, the Dow is 102 points lower at 11PM ET. Err, Tiger - you better stick with the golf course and leave the exchange floor to the experts.
Rowleys ends the day at 20.5, support is at this price I guess. Stil no more new development on it's RTO.
Gems TV make some progress today, higher by $0.02 after CIMB-GK analyst got published in the BusinessTimes.
Portfolio status: +ve 16.4%

Road to Recovery Begins.....

2007-08-28T06:22:00.000+08:00

The market seem rather lost after making some sort of recovery, has it really recovered?
A few pieces of news on subprime still going around, this time China banks came out and said they too are exposed to it, to a tune of USD$1b at least.
In Europe, a few top bankers take the fall for the subprime issue, fired.
While here in Spore, making the news is Rowleys, the delay of the RTO caused the price to plunge some 7%. Peter Lim the retired remisier pumped in a fortune in this deal, so, the question is, will the deal fell thru?
People's Food seem to make a remarkable recovery, gain back 30c at least after the recent sell off, another miss opportunity?
Gems TV share still in the doldrum after the earning announcement.
Porfolio status: +ve 16.5%

STI end 1.5% up

2007-08-23T23:53:00.000+08:00

Things continue to swing back to be rather bullish, however at 12PM ET, the Dow is trading in the negative.
Can't imagine that BTSS continue to climb higher, up another 10.4%, really miss the boat to buy it when it's really on sale.
Am still rather cautious on getting too much fund in the share market. Hoping for Gems TV to recover futher and take some profit off it.
Portfolio status: +ve 14.4%

STI up 2.9%

2007-08-22T23:33:00.000+08:00

Gems TV got a sudden breath of fresh air. CIMB gave a new TP of $1.32 today and it's affect on the price is nothing less but amazing. It went up 31% or 13c.
Really give a boost back to my portfolio.
BTSS now at $2.22, should have bought at $1.90, partly feel a tinge of regret of not buying when the market got whack. Could have made easily $1.6k in just a few days.
Dow is now trading in positive territory at 11:30am ET, 0.8% up.
Portfolio status: +ve 13.1%

STI 2.8% lower

2007-08-21T23:38:00.000+08:00

As expected, it's see-saw time in the share market. One day it' sup 6% and the next thing you know, it's down again.
No clear sign of recovery at all, people are still pretty nervous about the sub-prime issue and the credit crunch.
11:40am ET, and the Dow finally in the green. Henry Paulson was on CNBC and instantly the market is trading in the negative. I guess he is not that convincing trying to sell that the US economy is strong.
I guess the market will get worst or trading sideways if there is no fresh direction.
HSI got a boost due to the China policy being changed to allow mainland Chinese to trade there.
Star Cruise share is getting a beating.
Portfolio status: +ve 3%

Correction ended?

2007-08-20T23:46:00.000+08:00

STI ended 6.1% higher, an amazing 192 points higher, the last time this occured was 9 years ago, in Oct 1998.
Other markets in the region close higher as well.
Does this indicate the market correction has ended? or there will still be more volatility just around the corner?
The Dow is trading in the negative region at 12PM ET so far, which may indicate that the roller-coaster ride ain't over yet.
Some share have wild swings ie People's Food shoot up 33c, DBS gain $1.80
883 gainers versus 125 losers.
I guess the opportunity to buy has gone by, which is last Friday, for now. But with the underlying issues still exist, the market will go sideways or worst.
Time to sell when the opportunity comes, cut losses and be at the side line?
Portfolio status: +ve 6.7%

STI Survived Severe Choppy Water

2007-08-17T23:33:00.000+08:00

In my last post, I said STI will open higher but I was dead wrong. STI pull another surprise and went the other way, but so does other markets in the region.
In fact, at one time, STI was down some 6% before regaining back the loses from 3:30pm onwards.
At the end it lost only 22 points, ending the day at 3,131. Surprisingly performing better compare to other regional markets.
During this time, the market may already get some news that Fed will announce the discount rate cut by 50 basis points.
At 11:50am ET, the Dow is trading at 1.4% higher, which shows that investors are glad that the Fed stepped in today.
But, do not forget, the issue of sub-prime has not gone away, what the Fed did is just delaying the full blown fall out of sub-prime and bring some order to the skittish market.
Portfolio status: -ve 0.1%

The Dow takes a breather

2007-08-17T06:42:00.000+08:00

Dow makes a remarkable recovery, after trading most of the days in the negative, a late afternoon surge recoup back most losses and it ended just 0.12% lower.
Two new website indicator on hedge-fun and mortgate lender can be found below:
http://hf-implode.com/
http://ml-implode.com/
Both tracks the state of health of HF and ML respectively.
As of Thursday, August 16, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 117.180 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008534 US Dollar (USD)
The yen strengten against the dollar, indicating the pullout of yen after the sub-prime risks gotten worst.
Something to look forward to is the changing of the Chinese policy of allowing it's citizen to invest abroad directly. Outbound direct investment policy change will surely help to reverse the current market bearish sentiment.
It will hapen sometime this year.
STI will open higher this morning. Am now seriously looking at buying really good share, one of them is Boustead, it has lost some 40c so far.

5 signs that often precede a sharp turn ahead

2007-08-17T06:24:00.000+08:00

No #1: Oil prices
Before a bear: Oil prices often surge
Happened yet? Yes
No #2: Treasury yields
Before a bear: Treasury yields often run up
Happened yet? Not really
No #3: Number of rising stocks
Before a bear: The number of rising stocks starts to shrink
Happened yet? Has it ever
No #4: Consumer spending
Before a bear: Consumer spending sometimes slows
Happened yet? Starting
No #5: Corporate earnings growth
Before a bear: Corporate earnings growth often slows
Happened yet? Just wait for the '07 numbers
Go to below for more details:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/moneymag/0708/gallery.how_youll_know.moneymag/index.html

STI got hammered, 121 points lower

2007-08-16T23:32:00.000+08:00

While STI shed 3.7% today, my portfolio shed an astounding 8%. RMG was hit the worst, losing $0.11 in one day.
An interesting observation is, all the companies related to Oei Hong Leong is pretty much holding steady. JapanLand and Novena hardly got affected by this bloodshed.
Next two stocks least affected is QAF and VITA.
Some stocks like Genting really gone back to prices traded in the begining of the year.
The market volatility of all this can really suck the breath out of you.
How much longer? Anyone have that answer will definitely for certain make loads of cash.
Time like this is one of the best time to buy. Sell when the market is bullish, buy when it's bearish.
Portfolio status: +ve 4.8%

All chips off the table?

2007-08-16T06:30:00.000+08:00

STI plunged 3.4% and the Dow dived 1.3%. The Dow is now below 13,000 points and has lost 7% since it last peak at 14,000 (now 12,861).
STI has lost 11% since it last peak at 3,665 (now 3,273).
However, VMW is bucking the trend, it went up some 13% and closed at $57.71
Plenty of fear around, whoever is greedy now will pay a hefty price.
There will be more selling across the board, with people cutting losses and those staying put is either too brave or just plain stupid, including me.
So, where is the bottom of the pit? The Dow getting another 5% hit or STI getting another 2-3% hit?
Brace ourselves for yet another very bumpy roller-coaster ride when the market open today. It will get a lot more worst before there is any hope of a recovery.
Portfolio status: +ve 13.9%

VMW goes up, DOW goes down

2007-08-15T05:39:00.001+08:00

What a debut for VMW, it closed at USD$51, a 76% increase, but the figure is so exact, a little suspicious about it being manipulated, maybe?
However, despite the good showing from VMW, it can't be said the same for the Dow. The Dow got another walloped. It got trashed 1.6%, about 208 points yesterday.
Again, the credit market is to blame and the PPI numbers ain't helping either.
Thornburg Mortgage got hit, it went down 46%.
Good call not to buy EMC, it hardly move after gaining $2, in fact, after VMW started trading, the share price actually came tumbling down.
I guess STI will open much weaker this morning. That window of opportunity to sell laggard shares in my portfolio has more or less elapsed.
A surprise announcement yesterday from Gems TV with regards to it's increased market distribution in the States. That help to prop up the share price a little.
Not looking good overall, and still can't get my hands on VMW, way way above my budget.
Created a new porfolio manager in CNN Money, pretty cool tool as compare to Google Finance or even Bloomberg.

VMW - 76% up on 1st day?

2007-08-14T22:30:00.000+08:00

Today is the first day VMWare is trading in NYSE, and it looks like it's going to open at USD$51. This is a hefthy 76% increase from the IPO price of $29.
And this is despite the Dow is trading 0.6% lower in the mid-morning.
Looks like a lot of people have their eyes really focusing on this share.
Will I be able to succeed in buying some? It sure is expensive, if compare to the price of EMC's share.
Today, STI goes sideways and most counters are in the green. Sense of relieve to see my portfolio regain some lost ground a little.
Portfolio status: +ve 17%

Rebound or Unbound?

2007-08-13T23:09:00.000+08:00

With the world central banks acting in concert to prop up the banking systems from sinking further into the abyss, the market seems to be responding by rebounding worlwide.
As of the result, STI closed higher, up 0.64% and the Dow is up 0.24% as at 11:10am ET.
Is this effort to plug the leaky market liquidity too little too late?
This may shore up the market momentarily but the underlying fundamentals already so broken that one can't help but thinking that a recession is just looming around the corner.
Here we are, given this sliver of opportunity to use the upswing to reduce further losses by selling out those non-performing share before it got worsen.
Liquidity is king at a time of market turmoil such as this.
As of Monday, August 13, 2007
1 US Dollar = 118.442 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008443 US Dollar (USD)
Portofilio status: +ve 12.7%

VMWare IPO, Tuesday

2007-08-13T06:16:00.000+08:00

Now, this must be one of the most anticipated stock to be listed this year.
It's a US stock which will start trading on Tuesday with it's IPO target price between USD$29-$30.
The parent company, EMC, surprisingly it's share price is around $17.72 as of writing. Some would find it attractive to buy EMC, if the VMW price sky-rocketed, EMC share price will too, possibly.
Will VMW be like Google? Now, that's for the market to decide.
With the current market sentiment is so bad, most potential investors will feel skittish of entering it.
Look at Blackstone, IPO at $30 but now trading at $25.28.
I am hoping most investors are still wary and stay out of the market, then, the price will drop like Blackstone's, and I will buy it at lower than the IPO price.
That would be a steal. Afterall, IPO stands for Imaginary Profit Only.

Another Volatile Day for STI

2007-08-10T23:35:00.000+08:00

STI lost 125 points at one time, before late afternoon rally managed to cut the lost to 54 points.
In total, STI lost 1.6% with 171 gainers against 736 losers.
The late rally is probably triggered by the adjustment of GDP forecast to 7-8%.
MAS also came out saying it is prepared to inject liquidity into the banking system if required.
As of Friday, August 10, 2007
1 US Dollar = 119.138 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008394 US Dollar (USD)
As seen above, the weakening of the yen against the dollar is good, this will certainly help to maintain some liquidity in the US market.
As of 11:50am ET, the Dow is down by almost 1%
The saving grace for STI is the late buying surge, or else, more investors will panic and start selling when market opens on Monday.
Having said that, this may still hapen, depending on how US market closed on Friday.
Interesting to note, TPVH surged some 7c today, one of two counters in green, the other is VITA.
Portfolio status: +ve 12.6%

Dow plunged 2.8%

2007-08-10T06:55:00.000+08:00

387 points got wiped off from the Dow, this is worst than the initial -ve 120 points in the futures, when the news of BNP just got out.
Just as I have thought, the sub-prime issue is not over yet, and the market volatility is going to get worst until the dust is settled.
Are we seeing the 12% correction as predicted earlier by some analysts? So far, STI has gone down as much as 6.5%, so, there is still room to go down.
The Fed and ECB has temporary extended a loan of USD$154b to the banking system, but, much more is needed.
Interest rate is likely to be adjusted in September due to this.
As of Thursday, August 9, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 119.195 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008390 US Dollar (USD)

Sub-prime going Global

2007-08-09T19:45:00.000+08:00

This sub-prime fallout is now getting bigger. BNP Paribas just announced that 3 of it's hedge fund is now in trouble and unable to quantify their value.
This sent the Dow's futures down as much as 120 points.
When the news was announced, most of the Asian markets already closed, thus, there is no reversal in the earlier gains.
But, tomorrow we shall see more volatality when the Asian markets open, especially with the Dow going to get another big hit.
STI is closed today for the National Day holidays.
More companies around the world should come forward and reveal how much exposure they have on sub-prime. And the Fed will need to do something now to contain this problem, or else, we are going to see a steep nose-dived in the share market globally.
Perhaps, it's time to pull out and cut losses and be at the side line until the share market sea is more calmer.

STI rebounded 3.4%

2007-08-08T22:08:00.000+08:00

It seems as if the jitters only recently felt has melted away, investors voted with confidence today by picking up battered down blue chip stocks.
Volumes are seen again in penny stocks, what else is new?
Do people really think that the sub-prime issue is no longer an issue that warrants more attention?
Wouldn't this sudden change of attitude back fire?
What if China decided to play punk with the US currency, by releasing their "Nuclear Option"?
Maybe this rebound is being orchestrated by the BBs because tomorrow is the National Day?
As of Wednesday, August 8, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 118.687 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008426 US Dollar (USD)
The dollar strenghtens against the yen, will this trend continue? If so, maybe we are seeing another bullish run in the making.
With most shares being monitored turn green today but not Food Empire, why? It's still trading at 94c, with only 210k volume.
Btw, Beijing Olympics is almost 1 year away from today, it will open on 08/08/2008.
Portfolio status: +ve 17%

Fed is Inflation Hawkish

2007-08-08T06:30:00.000+08:00

As expected the interest rate remain as it is. The Fed main concern is inflation but said it believed the economy was sound & may continue to expand at a moderate rate.
However, consumer spending is expected to decline due to banks are less willing to extend credit.
The Dow rose 0.26% with the financial shares leading the way.
The total blowout of subprime will be unknown till perhaps Q3 or Q4.
The selldown for the past 2 weeks have dragged down STI by 6.5%
So, we are not totally out of the woods yet and the market will continue to be volatile.
Strategy is to be defensive and continue to monitor key data ie subprime and yen carry trade.

ST landing back to below 3,200?

2007-08-07T22:11:00.000+08:00

The trend is clearly in the reversal, losers outnumbered winners, 558 to 290. Market is clearly waiting nervously on what the Fed will be reporting later tonight at 12pm ET.
My portfolio is holding steady, and now am thingking of averaging down a share, is it worthwhile or just go ahead and buy Food Empire?
Unable to decide yet, so, will let this thoughts settle down for awhile longer.
The dollar again weakens against the yen, which really sum out how bad the US economy will be if the fall-out of the yen 'carry trade' and sub-primed issue worsens.
As of Tuesday, August 7, 2007
1 US Dollar = 117.814 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008488 US Dollar (USD)
What would the outlook be tonight? More sellers tomorrow if the Fed's comment is neutral, worst if the comment is bad.
The market surely need some sort of an assurance to swing it back to the green.

Dow Rally Back 2.2%

2007-08-07T06:42:00.000+08:00

Late afternoon bargain hunters droved up the Dow which closed 270 points up, these savvy investors probably think that the market has over-sold and betting that tomorrow's Fed report will give more support to the market.
Most analyst speculates that the Fed will not raise the interest rate in the short term, though.
In the local scene, local banks are opening up more details of how much exposure do they have on CDOs.
OCBC's said their risk is limited, some USD$430m but the two subsidiaries, Great Eastern and Lion Capital have investors that have direct exposure to the sub-prime market issue.
UOB also came out and admit the have some USD$400m exposure to CDO.
Apparently the market don't like this news, with the banks' stocks being the worst victim of being sell-off.
Do not be overly optimistics that the market will pick up from here, don't dive head-first, just stick your toe in, the market is still volatile since everyone ears is glued to tomorrow's Fed report.

STI dived 3.7%

2007-08-06T23:05:00.000+08:00

The drop is much bigger than anticipated, 127 points in a single day, that showed how much confident people have in the market these days.
This wiped out almost 9% more of my portfolio. I know it's going to be bad, but not this bad.
Banks took the biggest hit amid concern over subprime-related losses, mainly the exposure of the local banks to CDO.
As of Monday, August 6, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 118.093 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008468 US Dollar (USD)
As can be seen above, the dollar still pretty weak against the yen.
Almost lunch time in NY, and DJ is going side-ways, investors seemed pretty cautious while trying to guess what the Fed going to say tomorrow.
Hopefully, this market rout is going to end soon, not sure how many people have gotten burnt and filling for bankruptcy soon.
Portfolio status: +ve 12.1%

Focus on FOMC Meeting

2007-08-06T06:38:00.000+08:00

That will be on Tuesday, everyone will be very keen to know what will be said during this meeting and looking for indicators on whether the interest rates will be cut.
Good sign is, the yen is weakening against the dollar after peaking on last Wednesday at 117.60 to the dollar.
And the good news is some private equity buyout still may continue with the recent news of Istithmar upping it's bid of Barneys to USD$900m.
So, will the LBO funding now shift to the middle-east investment companies that is using the advantage of the recent increased in the crude oil price to fund all this latest deals?
Expect to see a sea of red when the local market opens today. Everyone is probably in tenterhooks on what the Fed will say about the general outlook of the US economy and the miserable housing problem.

When is the Right Time to Exit?

2007-08-05T15:40:00.000+08:00

As of Sunday, August 5, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 118.104 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008467 US Dollar (USD)
As seen above, the US dollar continues to weaken against the yen. Last Saturday it was 1 USD for 119 yen but, it's back down to the figures above.
All this is saying is the issue with the yen 'carry trade' is still not out of the woods yet, or it will never ever?
Tomorrow will see another huge sell-off in STI, so, should one just hold on tight for this very bumpy roller-coaster ride or just follow the herds instinct to sell?
Most important is to protect the capital I guess, no matter what don't lose the capital, it's Ok to lose some of the profit gotten so far, but, protect the capital.

Dow sunk almost 2.1% more

2007-08-04T06:23:00.000+08:00

That's 281 points wiped out after Bear Stearns came out with a report saying credit card markets were the worst in 20 years. Last Friday the Dow was down 2.3%
All this factors are inter-connected:
Unemployment >> mortgage defaults >> mortgage lending company goes bust >> credit company got in trouble >> more expensive funding for M&A >> share market turns bearish
Which can only mean that the US economy is heading towards a recession.
Can't image what sort of blood shed will be like when comes Monday, it ain't going to be pretty, that's for sure.
Those who chase up a stock will have a rude shock, their paper earnings will potentially be wiped out.
Done some homework to pick up a few good stocks, mainly in the food industry, one is QAF and the other is Food Empire. QAF is pretty low key company with high ROE and low PTB.
Food Empire at it's current valuation is pretty attractive to hold for mid to long term. Recently it has been expanding to Dubai and Ukraine by opening up branches there.

STI Continue Trading Sideways

2007-08-03T22:11:00.000+08:00

STI closed flat today but gainers led decliners 575 to 300. For the first time in days, all the share in my portfolio is green except for 1, which ended unchange.
The run up at the closing period of the trading day is rather strange because there is no real reason for it.
Furthermore, the key employment data in US is yet to be announce.
Is this the so-called "National Day Rally" some people is contributing this to?
Perhaps the BBs are doing a concerted move to buy up the shares to a high price before shorting them, catching all the over optimistics investors off guard?
The key employment data came out with 0.1% lower than the previous month. It seems the US economy is really seeing a slow down. Less jobs are created, people are defaulting mortgage payment, companies unable to find funding for M&A, mortgage lending companies going bust, all of this pointing to a major melt down in the US economy.
As of Friday, August 3, 2007
1 US Dollar = 118.912 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008410 US Dollar (USD)
As seen above, the only good sign is the dollar is now stronger than the yen. Could this be a sign that there is still some hope that the credit market will make some recovery? M&A still driving the bull run?
Portfolio status: +ve 23.7%

Nylect's Amazing 5,033% Rise

2007-08-03T06:40:00.000+08:00

All in 10 months, this amazing stock has astounded everyone with it's rise from 4.5c in Sep'06 to $2.31 last week, however, closed $1.82 yesterday.
Nylect last week's EPS was 0.33c and PE was 700.
And this amazing rise has pretty much gone virtually unnoticed based on a quick check on local forums.
With the recent market nose dive, you can now buy it at 21% discount.
This counter is probably being played by the BB, because it's fundamentals are not very strong. It is counting on Ezra's contract to fuel it's bottom line.
The Dow did a late surge again and close 100 points higher, will this means STI will rebound in the morning before giving up again in late afternoon?
This seems to be the trend, very volatile these days.

STI goes side way a little

2007-08-02T21:41:00.000+08:00

It was rather volatile the entire day, and end up flat, with just 3.8 points up. Losers out number winners still, 524 vs 343.
Whatever gains in the morning was soon became negative by mid-day.
My portfolio still bleed almost 1%.
No hope insight when will the market rebounce, if the US economy starts to dramatically slows down, we will be waiting for a long time to recover all those recent bleeding.
Whatever hapened to that earlier prediction of a soft landing of the US economy? It's more like a hard landing!
Decide to hold off any purchase until market sentiment recovers or found a quality stock with really good value to buy. Will be very selective in the next purchase.
Portfolio status: +ve 20%

Down turn takes a breather

2007-08-02T08:40:00.000+08:00

Dow up 1.14% last night and some Asian markets ie Japan & Australia open higher this morning.
Analyst commented that this is likely due to buyers picking up bargain stocks that causes the rally, underlying issue with sub-prime etc remains unchanged.
As of Thursday, August 2, 2007:
1 US Dollar = 118.385 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008447 US Dollar (USD)
Maybe too early to start to buy in, now watching JapanLand share price, last traded $0.11, this penny stock is a possible turnaround with Oei Hong Leong being it's most prominent investor.

Flight or Fight?

2007-08-01T22:27:00.000+08:00

During a time of turmoil like this, what would be the best strategy one should take?
Do one hold and weather the storm or sell and cut one's loss?
Unfortunately, the answer will be different for different individual. If a person has no immediate need of the money invested, he should just hold and wait for market rebound before off-loading & take profit.
If he is a speculator and already over extended himself, he should better cut his loss and move on. Delaying further, will just mean, his loss will likely be higher.
From my portfolio, I observed that penny stocks (sub 50c) tend to take losses in double digits, while, the so-called blue-chip stocks, the losses are kept in single digits.
So, lesson learned is, during this period, it's better to buy quality stocks with strong fundamentals. Look for stocks that have taken a real beating and trade below it's fair value.
Someone else rubbish, maybe another person's gold.

STI closed 3.27% lower (116 points)

2007-08-01T18:38:00.000+08:00

Decliners lead risers 1,014 to 110! More to come? STI now at 3,431. If 3,400 is breached, many people predict the next support level is 3,220.
My portfolio took a hit of 8.7%, worst is Gems TV, perhaps it's a good time to accumulate Gems TV at a lower price. It's trading at it's fair value of $0.55, would this be the biggest gamble I ever take?
This is worst than last February sell-off, will be interesting to see how long it takes to rebound, will it?
Portfolio status: +ve 21%

Dow Continue Down Trend

2007-08-01T08:53:00.001+08:00

Dow again is down 1.5% after an early rally. American Home Mortgage Investment share plunged an amazing 90% after it announced that it may need to liquidate assets.
Also observed that Midas share is now trading around $1.27, even after the issue about the chairman has cleared up, the stock continue to get a beating.
Fair value around $1.12, with a further 15% discount, may be good to buy at $0.96.
This week will be a bad week for contra players but good time to short, but not my cup of tea.
Waiting for earning results of Abterra and Gems TV.

STI Up but Overall Market Down

2007-07-31T23:04:00.000+08:00

There are 573 losers versus 376 winners today, yet STI edges up 0.6%, this shows that STI is really a very bad indicator of how the overall market is performing.
If the banks and properties stock perform well and brings up the index, that does not necessarily means that other shares are also performing well.
For instance, today, most pennies (sub 50c) got hit really bad, so, not everyone is cheering, worst still, some are predicting more downturn for the pennies tomorrow as well.
It's really wise to buy good companies' shares that have strong fundamentals, this way, if the market goes up or down, we don't have to worry much at all.
It's like fire (buy) and forget, but do check every now and then.
Portfolio status: +ve 32.5%

When too much becomes a problem

2007-07-31T06:45:00.001+08:00

Don't everyone wish that one got a problem that China has? The problem China has right now is too much liquidity. It now has USD$1.3 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves in the kitty.
Due to this, the share market has been sky rocketing up and nobody knows when this 'bubble' in China will burst.
Try as hard the Chinese goverment to cool the market, I don't think it will succeed at all, at least not before the Olympic Games starts.
After the Olympic, I think the market will start to dramatically do a reversal in China and this will cause knee jerk reaction that tumbles the rest of the market worldwide.
Two good stocks to pick today, Full Apex and Standford Land, but decided to just watch at the sideline this week.

Where is the Sales?

2007-07-30T23:55:00.001+08:00

Surprised that the sell off was so short, STI recovered back almost 1%, and didn't even got a chance to pick up any bargains.
But, on the other hand, was rather relieved the whole fiasco turn out to be manageable after all, maybe for now.
I think we are not fully out of the woods yet though, although the Dow recovered back 0.1% as of 12pm, need to watch the key data to be released this week.
Decided on the last minute to cancel the sale of the two shares I have in mind, one continue to bleed a little today but overall portfolio actually went up due to RMG reported very good earnings for last quarter.
Portfolio status: +ve 34.9%

Game over for yen carry trade?

2007-07-29T23:06:00.000+08:00

US dollar finally went below Y120 benchmark, this is going to be disasterous for the yen carry trade. Which means, the credit market may collapse, which will cause a domino effect to the fundings for future & current M&A, and the sub-prime mortgage will go further underwater, and finally others will follow suite.
As of July 28:
1 US Dollar = 118.664 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008427 US Dollar (USD)
With the present Japanese goverment losing the Upper House election, the Japanese market will open in the red tomorrow.
Is the writing on the wall? This roller-coaster ride going to get worst by the minute. Won't be surprise if tomorrow STI will drop another 2%. Sell or hold? Cut loss and move on or prepare to bleed more?
For those who thinks the recovery will be swift is just kidding themselves. Going to off load 2 shares tomorrow, and if the situation worsens, who knows, might have to off load 2 more, or buy more? Gosh, this is such a nightmare.

How to quickly size up a company share price

2007-07-29T19:12:00.001+08:00

Sometimes we wonder whether the share price of a company is too expensive or too cheap, and we wonder how expensive it is (overvalued) or how cheap it is (undervalued).
And we should always look for share price at a bargain, that is, we want to buy them when it's undervalued.
So, in order to help to start looking for bargain share, two ratios can come in very handy. They are, Earnings per Share (EPS) and Price to Earnings (PE).
If we multiply them together, you will get Price per Share, easy, isn't it?
So, let say you found a share trading at $0.62 and it's EPS is $0.04 and PE is 18.52, when you apply that formula, you will get P/S of $0.74, which means, the share is trading at a discount of 19% over it's fair value, what a steal!
The data I used for this example is real data, it belonged to Stamford Land. If only I had done my homework earlier, I would have bought that share but, I do not have this knowledge until this morning, better too late than never.

Dow's headache did not abate

2007-07-28T08:11:00.000+08:00

All punters, err, investors are screaming on top of their lungs, predicting more bleeding are expected next week.
Last minute sell off brings the Dow further negative by 1.54%, bringing the total loss to 3.84%.
Next week, Friday, the key employment data for July will be announced, while the home sales & contruction spending data will be released earlier.
This data will provide more indicators of the trend of the market.
Some analysts are still pretty bullish, predicting a turnaround as soon as next week.
Not a good week for everyone except maybe for those bargain hunters on the prowl for discounted blue chip stocks.
Undecided whether to take some profit or hold what I have, but, most likely will pick up a few more that has taken some beating.

STI tumbled 2.4%

2007-07-28T00:05:00.000+08:00

As expected, the market tumbled right at the start when the market open for business. Panic selling causes major bleeding in all sectors and no countries in Asia Pacific were spared, not even China.
The US dollar continues to weaken against the yen.
As of 27 July:
1 US Dollar = 120.025 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008332 US Dollar (USD)
This is getting dangerously close to touching 120 yen mark, very precarious situation, which may unravel the carry trade.
Already, Japan's biggest securities firm, Nomura Hldgs which incurred USD$260 million losses, states it's intention to exit the US sub-prime market anytime soon.
Will there be more following the steps of Nomura? If yes, will this be the major 9-12% correction we are expecting? Or it's just a small hiccup?
Did not bail out and take some profit off the table yet, although this may be the right move since, at 12pm US time, the Dow is down almost 1%.
Portfolio status: +ve 34.6%

Dow dropped almost 2.3%

2007-07-27T06:26:00.000+08:00

Must be one of the largest drop ever seen this year for the Dow. Property stocks take a big hit, with sub-prime mortgage concern high on everyone's list which everyone predict will eventually affect financial lending for future M&A.
Will the Dow drop to 13,000 region? We shall see.
Since yesterday's Asia market already anticipated this plunge in US market, will it continue to go south in today's trading?
Local company earning reports are still very bullish, except for STAT ChipPac, most company reports double-digit earnings in BT this morning.
I predict the market will open weak today since nervous investors will stir some panic selling, which will spook more into selling, so hang on, it will be another rough roller-coaster ride.
Will continue to keep track of USD-yen exchange rate, and monitor the situation, since sell off may continue for a few days like the one occured in March.
Keep an eye on China/Hongkong market too.
Anyone brave enough to pick up some bargains during this period?
Portfolio status: +ve 38.2%

Osim - buy or sell?

2007-07-26T22:51:00.001+08:00

Contradicting recommendation from Citibank and Goldman Sachs. Citibank recommend sell, with a revised TP of $0.63, while GS recommend a buy with a 12 month TP of $1.20. Osim trading at $0.815 as of 26 July.
So, who is right and who is wrong?
Interestingly, CNBC last night shown a segment where an analyst recommended hold on Apple share, despite revising the TP up 20%.
One can never trust an analyst report, or an analyst report is never a 100% certainty.
Trading status: not vested
Update: Credit Suisse put a 'neutral' on Osim with end-2008 TP of $0.92

Ossia - continue uptrend

2007-07-26T21:52:00.000+08:00

Got hold of some Ossia shares yesterday at $0.345, today it closed at $0.385, touching a day high of $0.405, despite when STI gone down almost 1.5%. All sectors in the red except for hotel.
US dollar continue to weaken against Japanese yen.
As of July 26:
1 US Dollar = 120.242 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008317 US Dollar (USD)
Is it time to bail out?
Gems TV open strong at $0.70 today but pull back 1.5c, closing at $0.665 (still negative $700 on this).
Should watch how US market perform later, despite strong earnings report from Amazon yesterday, it did nothing to turnaround US market sentiments.

Begining of the end?

2007-07-26T06:46:00.000+08:00

US sub-prime mortgage market is weakening the dollar, and IF & when the Japananese interest rates further goes up, it will surely cause the yen carry trade to unwind. Major major problem.
Note that, the credit market distress is linked to sub-prime lending issue too. Furthermore, the strenghtening of Japanese yen too will worsen this situation.
Watch for US dollar sinking below 120 yen - the danger zone. (Take some profit off the table when this hapens!)
OECD estimated that financial transactions linked to yen carry trades is about US$4 trillion in total. Borrowed yen is used to finance huge bubble in global asset prices, thus, the shakeout will impact many many sectors.
As of Wednesday, July 25:
1 US Dollar = 120.751 Japanese Yen
1 Japanese Yen (JPY) = 0.008282 US Dollar (USD)
Brief definition of carry trade: borrow yen and convert them to US/Aussie dollars, etc and benefit from the huge interest rate differential or 'carry' (Japanese interest rate is 0 or just above 0).

Fresh correction predictions

2007-07-25T22:31:00.000+08:00

New pullback predictions by Credit Suisse (CS), HSBC and Fraser Securities (FS).
CS: Correction after Feb 2008, before bull market continue with STI target hitting 5,000 points.
HSBC: Predict correction between 8-13% (no time frame).
FS: Correction up to 12% between end-Aug and mid-Nov.
So, who is correct? Or all wrong?
My take is, short term correction will probably be cushioned by the hot property sector, more M&A and robust offshore & marine sector, so, unlikely to be long drawn and will do a quick recovery and more bullish up trend for STI.

Gems TV - sudden surge with high volume

2007-07-24T23:56:00.000+08:00

Interesting development in Gems TV, it closed $0.02 higher with 17.5 million shares traded today (24 July).
There is also a company announcement of the dissolution of Comost Ltd, a dormant company in UK, so, are both linked somehow? Seems unlikely, so, what's causing it to move up all of a sudden?
Also, contemplating of buying Ossia, a local retailer with exposure in China/Hongkong. Future earning outlook looks good since China going to host the Olympic next year, because this will drive a surge in the demand for sports goods, a trend always seen prior to the games opening.
This counter has been seeing up trend for 3 days in a row, with shares being purchased by the CEO lately.

Phil Town's Rule #1

2007-07-23T21:53:00.000+08:00

There are hundreds if not thousands of investment books out there, and for someone who is new to investing, the number of choices can be damn overwhelming.
Personally, I own at least 8 books in investment todate and I don't see it stopping at that number.
We may all heard of Warren Buffett's investment rule, well, Phil Town's Rule #1 is actually a version of it.
I first heard or seen Phil in a CNBC's program hosted by Erin Burnett aka EB for short.
Well, to cut it to the chase, Rule #1 is:
1/ Find a wonderful business
2/ Know what it's worth as a business
3/ Buy it at 50% off
4/ Repeat till very rich
Sound simple, huh? Can't imagine I actually paid $22.85 to read something like that.
But, hey, I am going to give Phil a benefit of the doubt, afterall, he supposedly make a fortune from just $1,000 in 5 years. Afterall, what I am really interested in is his rule #2.
Finally I must add, before you buy that next stock, it's important to educate yourself, so, go out there and pick up a book today.

Abterra - pure luck or investment savvy?

2007-07-22T08:14:00.000+08:00

Another darling penny stocks that you will often see being traded in high volume. What triggered me to buy this counter is because of the issue with local construction industry is having with sand, in this case, the lack of it.
And with the current construction boom, everyone will be competing for the same raw materials, which create a huge imbalance between demand and supply.
So, cheers for all the companies that supplies sand, concrete, steel and cranes.
Bought this on 29 Jan at $0.04 and it's trading at $0.13 on 20 July, a whooping 225% increased.
Today, after getting (a little) wiser with all the financial ratios ie P/E, ROE, PTB etc, looking at hindsight, buying this counter is a dumb decision. The company has recently gone thru an RTO, and the books have nothing great to shout about.
But I was very green then in dabbling in investment and I went with pure gut feel, some would say, ignorant is bliss.
Which brings on an interesting question, as we get older and more experience, will our risk appetite became lesser?
Only the young and inexperience are seen as willing to take risk and reap handsome rewards if their bets proven correct? And gets a lot of flak if their investment gone awry?
I think the answer would be, we need to take some risks but it must be calculated risks, thus, combining all those financial ratios and overall business outlook, one must assess one's risk appetite and decide.
So, this begets another question, investment is not a science but an art?
Trading status: Vested

Jade - Feeling rather jaded with penny stocks lately?

2007-07-21T09:19:00.000+08:00

The recent announcement by some broking house of placing trading restrictions on some penny stocks, brings back memory of a wrong decision made by me on this counter, Jade.
Vested on 25 Apr at $0.105 and sold on 9 May at $0.06, which incurred a loss of $450.
Now it's trading at $0.475, which would have make me $3,700 richer if I were to hold just a bit longer.
Penny stocks are just pure speculative, some would say, trading heavily without any real fundamentals and probably manipulated by syndicates.
What do I learn from this? I guess, one need to do more homework, do more rigourous financial analysis and also learn some technical analysis (more on this subject later).
Hopefully, these skills do make one trade with more confidence and feel less jaded.
More hits than misses from now on? That's what we all want to achieve, but, descipline, being objective and emotionally detached during trading will also play a major role in determining success or failure.
Trading status: Loss

Labroy Marine's recent Insider Trading, is it worth it?

2007-07-20T22:48:00.001+08:00

The temptation to make a quick buck is ever so tempting, especially if one is saddled with bills to pay, credit card debts, car and housing loans.
For a person who have the opportunity to do so, the risk is great and the consequence if got caught is rather high, so, is it worth it?
Recently, this guy working with Labroy Marine thought he could get away with it.
He make a tidy profit of $20,000 and was later got fined for a sum of $50,000. Which effectively makes him $30,000 poorer and maybe even losses his job (talk about double whammy).
Driven by greed? Opportunity beckons? I guess the temptation is too great to pass on for him, but he forgot that the arms of the law is rather long. He should at least try to trade in an account which does not belong to him, too late now.
Trading Status: Not vested

Seksun - Hits and (more?) Misses

2007-07-20T22:23:00.001+08:00

Yikes, an investor's worst nightmare is when the moment he sold a stock, the next couple of days, the stock went up.
This is what happened to me when I bought Seksun on 4 July at $0.685 and sold at the same price on 13 July (and make a loss in transaction fee).
It's now trading at $0.735 (COB of 20 July). An opportunity to add $500 in the kitty if I were to hold a mere 7 days later.
I must admit that when one person is trading a stock, the stamina to hold on to one stock is not as great as compare to if one is investing in a stock.
Should have follow my own instinct that the price will appreciate, since there are 2 important factors that will influence this stock price.
One, Seagate is soon going to announce it's earnings, which it did today.
Two, the acquisition of MMI Hldgs by KKR is proceeding as plan. MMI Hldgs is another company in the same (harddisk) business as Seksun.
Afterall, the possibility of Seksun being involved in an M&A is still there, but very unlikely, if you ask me.
Trading status: Break even

Midas 22% Spectacular Plunge in One day

2007-07-20T06:32:00.000+08:00

The risk of investing in China based companies stock cannot be more obvious by this example shown by Midas Hldgs. The news that triggered the 41c drop in a single day, leaves many investor with a bad taste and incurred heavy losses.
Are investors today too greedy and thinks that in the bull market, any stock they bought will continue to rise?
I am sure with this new development, most investors that gotten burnt badly will learn from this painfully expensive lesson and stop following the herd instinct and buy blindly, I hope.
For those who did not invest in this stock, you can thank your lucky stars and hope your luck will continue to run.
Just because of it's name is Midas, don't be fool the reward will be gold, it may turn out to be just tin.
Not vested.

Gems TV - What is wrong with this counter?

2007-07-19T22:02:00.000+08:00

Fundamentally the company is sound but ever since some negative earnings report, the stock price has been going southward. Are people having higher and higher expectation of a newly listed company to churn out stella results quarter after quarter?
After a few quick search on the back ground of this company, I found that, Jason Choo, the CEO, came from the family that once controlled Cathay. And he also famously bid successfully to have lunch with Warren Buffett last year. Furthermore, he is the nephew of Jenny Teo, CEO of Hour Glass which also invested in Gems TV.
Reuters estimated that the jewelry business is worth USD$61 billion, can Gems TV capture a bigger market share of this lucrative business then?
And with the recent approval to launch their business in Japan, the potential is good. So, what's wrong with this counter? Only time will tell.
Vested $0.735 (12 July)
Closed $0.645 (19 July)